Is a College Degree Still Worth It? Two Numbers That Disagree

Short answer: Both headlines can be true. A new working paper says the wage gap between college and non-college workers has shrunk to roughly its mid-1990s level. The College Board says workers with a bachelor's degree still earn about 60% more per year than those with only a high school diploma. A smaller premium is still a premium, but the paper is not yet peer reviewed, so it is too soon to call the trend permanent.

Social feeds in 2026 are full of claims that a degree "no longer pays." Others insist the numbers prove the opposite. The two sides are often measuring different things.

What's Actually Real Here

A new paper finds the premium shrinking. Economists José Azar (University of Navarra, IESE), Mireia Giné (IESE, University of Pennsylvania) and Javier Sanz-Espín (Toulouse) wrote "The College Wage Premium in the Generative AI Era" on Aug. 28, 2026 and revised it on Sept. 10. The SSRN abstract says the US premium grew for about four decades, has contracted sharply since 2022 and is back to its mid-1990s level. It uses Current Population Survey data.

The pay-gap figures behind the viral numbers. An excerpt of the abstract posted by the blog Marginal Revolution on Sept. 2 reports the premium falling from 0.626 in 2022 to 0.575 in 2026. The excerpt does not state units. If those are log points, the usual way economists measure this, they convert to roughly an 87% gap in 2022 and a 78% gap in 2026. That is our own arithmetic, not a figure we found stated in the paper. We could not open the full paper, so we cannot confirm the exact sample or definitions. Secondary articles quoting "87% to 78%" should be read with that in mind.

The authors do not blame AI for most of it. The SSRN abstract says differences in exposure to generative AI explain roughly one-third of the drop. The Marginal Revolution excerpt of an earlier version said about 28%, and the authors describe their results as noncausal. A Daily Economy (AIER) piece from Sept. 23 reads the paper as leaving about 70% of the decline unexplained.

The College Board says degrees still pay. Its Education Pays 2026 report finds that in 2024, full-time, year-round workers aged 25 and older with a bachelor's degree earned a median of $31,200 (62%) more than high school graduates. After taxes, the gap was $22,200 (56%). It estimates graduates break even, counting the cost of college, at age 34 if they pay the full published price, or age 30 with average grant aid. Unemployment in 2025 was 2.6% for adults 25 and up with at least a bachelor's degree, versus 4.3% for high school graduates.

Where the Hype Outruns the Reality

The two numbers are not rivals. The paper tracks how a wage premium changed over time, across workers of many ages. The College Board reports the level of annual median earnings for full-time workers 25 and up. A premium can fall and still be large. Neither measure tells you what your own degree will pay.

One working paper is not a verdict. It has not been peer reviewed, and it is a single research team's reading of survey data. The authors flag that their results are noncausal. The College Board figures are medians for people who finished a bachelor's degree, so they do not show what happens to students who borrow and do not finish, or how the newest graduates are faring.

Averages hide the major. The College Board cites New York Fed data showing early-career (ages 22 to 27) median earnings from $44,000 for performing arts to $87,000 for computer science. At mid-career (35 to 45), they run from $55,000 for elementary education to $120,000 for computer science and mechanical engineering. Two people with bachelor's degrees can sit tens of thousands of dollars apart in pay. Choosing a field matters as much as choosing to go.

Debt changes the math. The same report says 47% of 2023-24 bachelor's recipients at public and private nonprofit four-year schools borrowed, with an average debt of $29,560. That figure does not cover graduate loans or parent loans, and it does not capture students who left without a degree.

A Practical Approach

This is general information, not financial advice.

1. Look up your field, not the national average. Compare median earnings for the specific major and the schools you are considering.
2. Count the net price. Use grant-adjusted cost, not sticker price. The College Board's break-even ages differ by four years between the two.
3. Set a borrowing limit. Compare expected starting pay in your target field with total loans before you sign.
4. Weigh the alternatives. For some careers, short credentials or apprenticeships can fit; see our look at micro-credentials for what the evidence supports.
5. Plan to finish. The pay and unemployment gaps in the College Board data compare people who completed a degree, so the payoff depends on getting across the line.
6. Revisit the question with new data. If the premium keeps falling in 2027 data, the case for expensive degrees weakens. If it stabilizes, the 2026 drop may look like a dip.

FAQ

Has the college wage premium really fallen to 1990s levels? That is what the Azar, Giné and Sanz-Espín working paper says. It is not yet peer reviewed, and we could not open its full text.

Is the 87% to 78% figure right? We could not find those numbers stated in the paper. They match the paper's reported 0.626 and 0.575 if those are log points, but that is our conversion.

Is AI the cause? The authors link about one-third of the decline to generative AI exposure but call their results noncausal.

Does a degree still pay? On average, yes, according to the College Board's 2024 earnings data. The size depends heavily on major, cost and debt.

Which majors pay most? In the New York Fed data cited by the College Board, computer science led in both early and mid-career.

Things change quickly. This article reflects what was publicly known when it was written or last updated, so details such as prices, availability, rules and product specs may have changed since. Always check the official source before you buy or decide.

Sources

• The College Wage Premium in the Generative AI Era (SSRN abstract, Azar, Giné and Sanz-Espín, revised Sept. 10, 2026)
• The College Wage Premium in the Generative AI Era (Marginal Revolution, Sept. 2, 2026)
• The Great Repricing of the College Degree (The Daily Economy, Sept. 23, 2026)
• Education Pays 2026 full report (College Board, 2026)